For short-term climatic predictions, which one of the following events, detected in the last decade, is associated with occasional weak monsoon rains in the Indian subcontinent?

Answer: (c) El Nino and Southern Oscillations

El Niño–Southern Oscillation is linked to weak monsoon years.

The idea

A seasonal forecast uses slow-changing ocean conditions that can influence the coming months. ENSO is one such signal because Pacific temperatures and winds change tropical circulation. It gives a tendency, not a certain prediction for every monsoon year.

Pacific warming persists → Trade winds and rising-air zones change → Tropical circulation shifts → Conditions over India may become less favourable for rain → Forecasters combine ENSO with Indian Ocean signals → A probability forecast is made

Why the others are wrong

(a) La Niña usually brings a good monsoon.

(b) Jet streams matter for monsoon onset, but the link to weak years is ENSO.

(d) Global warming is a long-term trend, not a short-term predictor.

Also know

A positive IOD may support the monsoon despite El Niño. The Madden–Julian Oscillation affects shorter spells of tropical rainfall. Climate change is a long-term change in the background climate; it is different from an individual ENSO episode.